BFCM 2025 saw 37% increase in pre-purchase product views
2026-03-10 23:26 Diff
https://www.klaviyo.com/uk/blog/bfcm-predictions

Shopping is about to hit its peak season. But this year’s surge will look different from those before it. Instead of impulsive buying sprees, shoppers are entering the holidays with a more deliberate mindset. They’re researching, comparing, and planning their purchases well before they hit “buy.”Ecommerce revenue is expected to climb 11.5% this peak season, marking another year of BFCM revenue growth. What’s changing, though, is how and when shoppers make decisions. The “browsing bump”—a 37% year-over-year increase in product views—is proof that intent is building earlier than ever.AI will quietly shape that intent. Behind the scenes, marketers are using it to surface smarter recommendations, segment audiences more precisely, and personalise the path from discovery to check-out. The result will be a peak season defined by not just deals, but data, relationships, and relevance.

Recent browsing activity hints at how people will shop this peak season. In the last quarter, shoppers have increased their browsing across digital channels, as product views on ecommerce sites have surged 37% year over year. This sharp increase points to a rise in consideration and is a strong signal of purchase intent. This “browsing bump” is outpacing even the strong 14% increase in order growth. While browsing is up across the board, the scale and shape of that behaviour varies significantly by ecommerce vertical. Apparel & accessories sites stand out, with the highest number of product views per order and the most significant raw increase in product views overall. This reflects the category’s exploratory nature: shoppers often browse widely before committing, whether to compare styles, explore new collections, or simply enjoy the experience.Food & beverage sites, which typically see far fewer product views per order due to routine or the prevalence of subscription-based purchases, are experiencing the largest year-over-year rate increase in product views.

What to do with this insight

Use browsing data as your early warning system. Pre-BFCM browsing activity is one of the best predictors of peak sales. Build campaigns that nurture shoppers through the research phase using browse abandonment flows, educational content, and messages that reflect their recent product views.

The rise of agentic shopping

AI is quietly running things behind the scenes. The question on many marketers’ minds is what this browsing boom means for the rise of agentic shopping, where shoppers use AI tools like ChatGPT to research and even buy products directly.

As more of the shopping journey shifts off-site, brands will face a higher bar for relevance and personalisation. Knowing your shopper—not just who they are, but what they’ve browsed, considered, and engaged with—must inform every interaction if your brand is going to remain central in the customer conversation.

This will be a year when marketers lean harder into relevance on both sides of the equation. Product recommendations are poised to play an outsized role during BFCM. Since the start of the year, 14% more brands have added product recommendations to their email flows, and the volume of sends containing recommendations has climbed 19%.

As shoppers browse more, surfacing the right products at the right time—whether through on-site experiences, off-site AI interactions, or in owned channels—will be critical to capturing intent and driving conversion.

At the same time, marketers are increasingly turning to AI to find and understand their shoppers. The use of AI to help segment audiences is up 75% so far this year, and the volume of messages sent using those AI-driven segments has grown 61%.

Together, these shifts point to a new marketing era where AI does more than just power recommendations. It defines relevance itself, connecting browsing behaviour, segmentation, and personalised delivery into one continuous, intelligent loop.

What to do with this insight

The brands that win this season won’t just personalise. They’ll predict. That’s AI’s specialty, so let it do the heavy lifting. Use Klaviyo AI to identify high-intent audiences, dynamically insert product recommendations, and automatically adjust send frequency based on engagement signals.

Growth will come from connection, not just conversion

Repeat shoppers are the most reliable, and profitable, audience this BFCM. This year, ecommerce growth isn’t coming from endless discounts. It’s coming from deeper customer relationships.

Repeat shoppers are set to drive 14% higher revenue than they did during peak season last year. They’re your most reliable audience. Loyalty, not novelty, will power this season’s biggest wins.

What to do with this insight

Reward loyalty early. Activate VIP and repeat purchase flows across both email and SMS before Cyber Week, and use predictive analytics to surface replenishment or complementary product offers. Giving your best customers a first look at personalised holiday exclusives and offers helps keep loyal customers feeling recognised, not retargeted.

CRM-led growth is setting the pace

The fastest-growing channels this season are owned. Email and SMS will be the growth engines of the season. CRM-driven, or owned-audience, revenue is poised to outpace other marketing channels, with SMS revenue projected to rise 33% and CRM-attributed GMV fuelling a major share of ecommerce gains.As acquisition costs rise, owned channels are where efficiency meets personalisation.

What to do with this insight

Double down on owned audiences. Use Klaviyo’s segmentation and AI capabilities to time messages perfectly, and sync content across email, SMS, and newer channels like WhatsApp to keep storytelling consistent through peak season.

Email and SMS will dominate the biggest days

More than 1 in 3 dollars comes from owned audiences over BFCM. When the carts finally fill and orders flow, email and SMS channels take the crown. OnBlack Friday 2024, email and SMS together drove 43% of all GMV, well above the peak-period average of 38.5%.Across the entire season, CRM channels accounted for more than 1 in 3 dollars in total ecommerce revenue.

What to do with this insight

Plan your channel choreography. Pair high-volume sends with tailored SMS nudges. Use behavioral data to re-engage browsers who don’t convert, and extend the halo of Black Friday well into December.

The discount rush still matters, but timing is everything

Shoppers are sure to find plenty of discounts during peak season. Last year, discount rates reached 30% on Black Friday and Small Business Saturday. This year, Cyber Sunday will join them in the “30%+ club.” The height of discounting begins the week before Black Friday and extends all the way through the Wednesday after Cyber Monday. All told, that’s 13 days where discount rates beat 20%.And while BFCM discounts are far higher than they are during non-peak periods, this year we expect discount rates to tick up less than one percentage point across ecommerce for email orders. Not all verticals will see higher rates, though: we predict a slight pullback in sporting goods and home & garden, for example.

What to do with this insight

Start smaller, scale smarter. Lead with engagement offers—loyalty rewards, early access, or bundles—before rolling out blanket discounts. Then, time your strongest deals for Cyber Week to capture pent-up intent.

Built for the way shoppers buy now.

This BFCM season will reward brands that interpret intent rather than just reacting to it. The winners will use browsing data, CRM orchestration, and AI-powered personalisation to transform curiosity into connection and short-term sales into long-term relationships.