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Original 2026-01-01

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1 BFCM Insights backed by klaviyo data

2 The 2025 BFCM season is off to a strong start

3 Your first look at what’s up, flat, and down in ecommerce so far this peak season

4 <h2>Consumer intent is driving an unexpectedly strong start.</h2>

5 The peak season is officially underway, and it’s off to a stronger start than predicted. Through the first two weeks of November, ecommerce GMV is up 13% year over year, surpassing Klaviyo’s projection of 11.5%.

6 The data signals a powerful start to the 2025 holiday season in which shoppers are buying earlier, browsing more, and engaging more deeply with the brands they already know. But beneath that headline of growth lies a subtle shift in where that spending is coming from, and what it means for marketers.

7 In short, repeat shoppers are driving growth, SMS is surging, browsing is booming, and order values are steady. Discounts, meanwhile, are holding flat, suggesting brands are being more strategic and reserving their deepest offers for the critical BFCM window to come.

8 Loyalty is leading the way

9 Repeat shoppers are driving early-season gains

10 So far, the story of peak season 2025 is one of loyalty over novelty. Repeat buyers are powering ecommerce growth, with repeat purchase revenue up 18.3% year over year, compared to a 7% lift from new buyers.

11 For marketers, this means early November belongs to your most loyal customers. They’re shopping early, responding to personalized offers, and anchoring GMV before the big deal days even begin.

12 What to do with this insight

13 Activate your VIP and repeat purchase flowsin Klaviyo now, before Cyber Week.

14 Use predictive analytics toidentify high-likelihood repeat purchasersand serve them personalized replenishment or complementary offers.

15 Deliver exclusive early-access or loyalty-tier offersvia text message and email to make these customers feel recognized, not just retargeted.

16 The texting surge continues

17 Engagement and conversion gains show CRM strength

18 Revenue from text messages ahead of BFCM for the same cohort of brands has climbed 37.8% year over year, outpacing even the 34.8% increase in message sends. This data is from same-store sales, which means it is looking at brands that had texts live last year, too, and excludes those that added it as a channel in 2025.

19 Text productivity, measured by revenue per send, is improving even as volume rises. This early-season momentum highlights a shift toward CRM-led growth. As acquisition costs climb, owned channels like text and email are proving their value as both efficient and high-converting.

20 What to do with this insight

21 Sync cross-channel storytellingbetween email, text, and even WhatsApp using Klaviyo’s omnichannel campaign builder.

22 Leverage Klaviyo’s automation and segmentation tools totrigger timely, personalized messagesbased on browse and cart activity.

23 Measure ROI by tracking revenue per message tocontinuously refine send cadence.

24 Shoppers are browsing, and buying with intent

25 Product views are up 35%, showing strong discovery ahead of Black Friday

26 Shoppers are in discovery mode, but they’re not sitting on the sidelines. Product views have jumped 35% over the past two weeks, continuing the browsing boom seen earlier this quarter.

27 The surge points to high intent as shoppers are actively researching and comparing, even as they pace purchases ahead of the big Black Friday weekend.

28 What to do with this insight

29 Treat browsing as your early warning system. Use browse abandonment flows tore-engage shoppers while intent is high.

30 Layer in AI-powered recommendationsto showcase products viewed or related items.

31 Send educational or value-based content(e.g., holiday lookbooks or gifting guides) to nurture shoppers until they’re ready to convert.

32 Average order values hold steady

33 Prices are stable as brands resist early discounting

34 Despite expectations that inflation would drive price increases this year, order values during the first few weeks of the season show otherwise. Average order value (AOV) remained nearly flat compared to last year: +1.3% overall and only +0.6% for repeat buyers. While margin pressure on brands is real, that squeeze has seemingly not been passed on to the shopper.

35 What to do with this insight

36 Use Klaviyo’sA/B testing and reportingto compare bundle offers vs. early discounts.

37 Triggerup- and cross-sell automationspost-purchase to boost AOV organically.

38 Identify segments most likely to spend moreand tailor gift set recommendations or “complete the look” nudges for them.

39 Discounts are flat, but the stage is set

40 Promotional pressure is holding, and likely to rise soon

41 So far, discounts are essentially flat year over year, averaging 13.7% compared to 13.4% last November. That stability, combined with slower Black Friday messaging in inboxes (down from 21.5% to 18.9%), suggests brands are pacing themselves.

42 The real test comes next: will consumers hold out for bigger deals, or will strong early-season performance convince brands to maintain margin discipline?

43 What to do with this insight

44 Lead with value-based offers, like bundles, early access, or loyalty perks, before turning to blanket discounts.

45 Time your strongest dealsfor the Cyber Week stretch when intent peaks.

46 Use Klaviyo’s A/B testing totest discount depth against engagement or conversion rates.

47 <h2>Data-driven brands are winning early.</h2>

48 The 2025 peak season is already proving that connection beats promotion. Growth is coming from relationships (i.e., repeat shoppers, owned channels, and high-intent browsing), not deep discounts or impulsive sales spikes.

49 As the BFCM crescendo approaches, brands that use their CRM data, predictive analytics, and AI-powered personalization to stay ahead of consumer intent will sustain momentum through December and beyond.

50 Launch BFCM campaigns faster

51 Klaviyo offers hundreds of email and SMS templates, forms, and automated flows.

52 Track, measure, and boost your BFCM success

53 Reduce churn, boost repeat sales, and optimize ad spend using Klaviyo analytics.

54 Klaviyo AI offers marketers both personal efficiency and revenue gains.

55 1 in 4 dollars is made in peak season, or November and DecemberWhile consumer surveys suggest that holiday shopping starts earlier each year, Klaviyo’s data tells a more nuanced story. <a>Read more</a>

56 Holiday browsing spikes just 10 days before Black FridayThe path from intent to purchase for BFCM is shorter than many think. The real bump in browsing begins only 10 days before Black Friday.<a>Read more</a>

57 BFCM is the single biggest new-customer event of the yearBrands see more new buyers during peak season than the prior 3 monthscombined.<a>Read more.</a>

58 BFCM 2025 is set to be the biggest in recent memoryFrom early shopping and deeper discounts to the rise of loyalty and SMS growth-discover six BFCM 2025 trends shaping this year’s peak season.<a>Read more.</a>

59 It’s the year of the browseEcommerce is in its “browsing boom.” Product views across ecommerce sites are up 37% year over year, while order growth has risen 14%.<a>Read more.</a>

60 Consumer behavior shifts are already impacting BFCM predictionsShopping is about to hit its peak season. But this year’s surge will look different from those before it.<a>Read more.</a>